The complexity and nonlinearity of the atmosphere defy simple statistical models. The main method for representing uncertainty in the atmosphere is therefore an ensemble of forecasts. Much of the research in W2W is directly concerned with the contributions of different physical processes to uncertainty, and with developing tools to describe and quantify these relative contributions. These tools include new (stochastic) parameterizations, coupling to detailed cloud or land surface schemes, as well as statistical postprocessing methods, and verification techniques.
The aim of the CCA Ensemble Tools is to facilitate the sharing of methods for generating and processing ensemble forecasts. To this end, a common codebase available to all W2W researchers will include as many contributions from the individual projects as possible.
The following activities within the CCA are planned:
- Facilitating access to an integrated state-of-the-art forecasting system and coordinating communication with HErZ-DA scientists and the research department of DWD
- Creating a common code repository and data base
- Organizing yearly workshops on the generation and on the use of ensembles, and exchanging about ensemble-related activities within projects.
For more information on the activities organized by the CCA Visualization, click here.